“It is a very recent disease to mistake the unobserved for the nonexistent; but some are plagued with the worse disease of mistaking the unobserved for the unobservable.”
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The mathematics of employing ‘Genealogies of Kings (rulers)’ in estimating timing of a specific historical event is rather straightforward.
Event A – Time of which is unknown and thus is to be estimated, is separated from reference Event B (timing of which is assumed/presumed to be known, based on other independent evidence).
If we happen to know Number of Kings/Rulers (X), between Events A & B, who ruled on an average for years Y….
Estimated timing of Event A = X Multiplied by Y, Years before the reference event B.
End of Theory.
I will present few illustrations in this series.